Archive for the 'Emerging Markets' Category

Global Recession?

Global Recession?The International Monetary Fund has come out with its latest set of forecasts of the world economy. The report says at one point:

“The IMF staff now sees a 25 percent chance that global growth will drop to 3 percent or less in 2008 and 2009—equivalent to a global recession.”

Since when is 3% growth equivalent to a “global recession”? According to my textbook, periods of negative GDP growth are called recessions.

By this “new’ definition, the world economy has been in recession 1980-83, 1990-93, 1998, and 2001-2002. In other words, 11 out of the last 28 years. There are no negative years of world growth.

Here are the IMF’s latest world growth numbers, and forecasts out to 2013.
Annual World Economic Growth

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Asian Markets

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI (코스피지수) There’s a paradox in Asian markets, according to Rafael Nam of Reuters. Balance sheets of Asian companies look like they’re in good shape, yet the cost of insuring against debt defaults by these businesses is even higher than it was a decade ago, during the Asian crisis. That makes life harder for them, but it could create an opportunity for investors.

In this case, the only rational explanation seems to be that investors - who are ultimately the ones doing the insuring - simply prefer to keep their money in highly liquid securities denominated in dollars or euros. Yet to the extent that investors’ preferences for the United States and the euro zone come from habit rather than from economic fundamentals - and habit is undoubtedly a part of it - the opportunity in Asia is real. So, who will take advantage?

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How GE Embraces the Forces of Globalisation

Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GEIf you are interested in globalisation, you can hardly ignore the experiences of General Electric. Claudia Deutsch has written a fascinating article about the giant company’s journey from scepticism, to facing up to globalisation’s challenges, and now to become a truly global business in all facets.

“They are managing their worldwide organization as a network, not a centralized hub with foreign appendages,” said Christopher Bartlett, a professor at the Harvard Business School who has written several case studies on GE.

“Everyone talks about outsourcing manufacturing, but it is the high-level R&D jobs that are the great marketing tools, and I’m a salesman, remember. I know that you don’t get to sell things for long unless you are part of the culture into which you are selling.” Immelt said.

For example, GE Healthcare unit has already moved its headquarters to the London area, and another may follow soon. London, it turns out, is a better hub for global operations than Connecticut. If the whole company eventually follows, it won’t be the first time a Fortune 500 company has left the United States - and it certainly won’t be the last.

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Most Innovative Companies

Road to InnovationFast Company has composed their list of last year’s most innovative companies around in world. In my opinion three companies out of the top ten are catching my eye.

First good old GE, they really put imagination at work beyond their fancy slogan. It surprises me how such an established and large company can still thrive and pull off a number of new breakthroughs every year. Secondly Nike, the sporting goods company from Beaverton, OR. Nike is the only company in the top 10 not engaged in an internet or technology driven industry. Thirdly, the Chinese internet company Alibaba, its the only company from emerging markets that made it into the top 10.

#1 Google
#2 Apple
#3 Facebook
#4 GE
#5 IDEO
#6 Nike
#7 Nokia
#8 Alibaba
#9 Amazon
#10 Nintendo

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The US$2500,- People’s Car

Tata Nano - World’s Cheapest Car - People’s CarThe moment has finally come. Today Tata has unveiled the world’s cheapest motor car. Tata’s stripped-down motor car will cost you around US$2,500 (100,000 Rupees), and it’s aimed at the company’s home market of India. But its popularity need not stop there.

This is not only a breakthrough from a price point perspective. It basically puts a car into the reach of people that previously only could dream of owning a scooter or moped. Nevertheless there are still billions of people who cannot afford an investment of $2500,-. In essence this is a car aimed at the world’s middle class. There are hundreds of millions of people who will be able to afford the People’s Car - in China, in Vietnam, in Pakistan, in coastal Africa…. They’ll buy, as long as the quality is reasonable and the car doesn’t become a laughingstock, like the old Yugo.

Furthermore, in affect, the People’s car will also change the competitive dynamics of the entire auto landscape. Everyone except the luxury car makers might want to think about entering this uncontested market segment. If Tata can sell a good product for US$2,500, then it will be able to keep moving its consumers up the economic motor car ladder, to a US$5,000 car, and then a US$10,000 car. When you consider a growing market of hundreds of millions worldwide, a little brand loyalty could go a long way.

Updated @ Jan 11th.: Interested in the applied cost-cutting tricks please follow this link.

Source BBC News & IHT.

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Best Performing Stockmarkets in Emerging Markets

Stockmarkets in emerging economies
Source

Developing World Venture Capital

Kiva LoansMicro-loans made to third-world entrepreneurs are changing lives and fortunes around the world. CNBC published an article on success stories on Kiva’s microfinance loans here.

The Kiva wesite was founded by Jessica and Matt Flannery. They were newly weds - he a software engineer, she an MBA student at Stanford - who were convinced they could use the Internet to put people in need together with people willing to help. Anyway, this is how Kiva works.

Kiva Loan Cycle

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Islamic banking takes off

Islamic Finance and BankingFormerly concentrated in North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, Islamic banking is now spreading rapidly around the world. Attracted by a huge growth potential, international banks like Citigroup, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are creating their own Islamic wings. In addition to Islamic loans, there are Islamic bonds, Islamic credit cards, and even Islamic derivatives. Loans and bonds that conform to the Koran are already available in the United States. Britain, Japan and Thailand are contemplating issuing Islamic bonds of their own.

Today, over 300 Islamic financial institutions are successfully running their businesses from Dubai, New York, Hong Kong, London and other financial centres around the world, and together hold at least $500 billion in assets. This amount is expected to increase with more than 10 percent a year (source).

Islamic banking refers to a system of banking or banking activity that is consistent with Islamic law (Sharia) principles and guided by Islamic economics. In particular, Islamic law prohibits usury, the collection and payment of interest, also commonly called riba in Islamic discourse. In addition, Islamic law prohibits investing in businesses that are considered unlawful, or haraam (such as businesses that sell alcohol or pork, or businesses that produce media such as gossip columns or pornography, which are contrary to Islamic values).

“This is an industry on its way from a niche industry to becoming a truly global industry,”. Khawaja Mohammad Salman Younis, the managing director for operations in Malaysia for Kuwait Finance House, the world’s second-largest Islamic bank, after Al-Rajhi Bank, told The International Herald Tribune. ” In the next three to five years you’ll see Islamic banks coming out in Australia, China, Japan and other parts of the world.”

All-in-all, before Islamic banking activities can really take off there need to be done an adjustment to the current regulatory environment. Research conducted by McKinsey emphasises on two areas of attention: general licensing policies and the role of governments in overseeing compliance with the Islamic code or Sharia. Notwithstanding, an influential propeller for the recent popularity of Islamic banking is the booming oil price (Source). As this is expected not to slow down in the forthcoming years it can only speed up the needed regulatory reforms and trigger further globalisation of Islamic banking.

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Emerging economies

Stockmarkets Performance

The world is experiencing one of the biggest revolutions in history, as economic power shifts from the developed world to emerging giants, like the BRIC countries and others. Thanks to market reforms, emerging economies are growing much faster than developed ones.

The increasing strength of emerging economies has been reflected in their stockmarkets, which have climbed steeply in recent years. According Morgan Stanley Capital International’s emerging-market index, stockmarkets in emerging economies are expected to grow nearly four times compared with an increase of only 70% in the S&P 500.

High p/e ratios indicate there is a bubble in the making. However when looking beyond the p/e ratio and compare a country’s p/e ratio with its own track record it looks lik some countries have a strong “buy”.

Interested in reading up on this issue this can be a good starter “Dizzy in Boomtown” and “Can Emerging Markets Save Europe“.

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Globalisation & China

Shanghai Skyline

BBC News has published a special report on Globalisation. A concise explanation on globalisation can be found here. Part of this special report is devoted to Globalisation and China. The latest article on this topic is “China may let multinationals list“, authorities of the Shanghai stock exchange are considering to allow foreign multinationals with substantial business operations in China have a listing on the SH stock exchange.

Other appealing articles in this section are: “Shanghai: Creating a global city“, how China’s economic liberalisation forged a new Shanghai. “Hong Kong v Shanghai: Global Rivals“, a historical analysis and a sneak preview in the future on how these two cities will develop and position themselves at the world stage. “Can Shanghai turn green and grow“, elaborates on Shanghai’s balancing act in managing economic growth and quality of living.

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