Tag Archive for 'Macroeconomics'

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Future of finance

futurefinance
From the ruins of the credit crunch, a new financial order will emerge. Its shape is not yet known, but is already hotly debated. Will there be a new model for investment banking? The socialisation of risk? A return to Keynesianism? What role will hedge funds and private equity play? And government and regulators?

In this series of exclusive video interviews, Lionel Barber, editor of the Financial Times, talks to some of the chief protagonists – bankers, policymakers, financiers – and asks them to explain not just what happened, but also how they think finance will adapt to the post-crash world.

Globalisation of entrepreneurship

Globalisation of entrepreneurshipThe globalisation of entrepreneurship is raising the competitive stakes for everyone, particularly in the rich world. Entrepreneurs can now come from almost anywhere, including once-closed economies such as India and China. And many of them can reach global markets from the day they open their doors, thanks to the falling cost of communications.

The world’s greatest producer of entrepreneurs continues to be America. The lights may have gone out on Wall Street, but Silicon Valley continues to burn bright. Entrepreneurship also flourishes in clusters. A third of American venture capital flows into two places, Silicon Valley and Boston, and two-thirds into just six places, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego and Austin as well as the Valley and Boston.

The information age is making it ever easier for ordinary people to start businesses and harder for incumbents to defend their territory. Back in 1960 the composition of the Fortune 500 was so stable that it took 20 years for a third of the constituent companies to change. Now it takes only four years. Source

Recession Tracker

Global Downturn

Wanna see how the recession has affected GDP, house prices, rates and inflation. BBC published an analysis on stock markets and government rescues here (Global Downturn). In light of this the Financial Times has published a special report on how to fight a global downturn here (Managing in a Downturn).

10th Anniversary of the Euro

The Euro will celebrate its 10th anniversary next month, defying doubters but facing the greatest challenge of its young life as the global credit crisis spreads. Read more.

Launched in January 1999, the economic and monetary union now encompasses an area that includes 320 million people and 15 countries, ranging from economic powerhouses France and Germany to Cyprus and Malta.

But economists note that many of the pitfalls that fostered skepticism of the euro still exist. And they will be amplified in coming years as Europe and the world deal with the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Source: MarketWatch Special Report The euro at 10

The Beginning of a Multilateral Economic System

Global economic meetings used to mean the G7 and then the G8. However, last weekend marked the emergence of a new phenomenon the G20. Which have set stage for the beginning of a better multilateral economic system.

It used to be a rich-country affair with Russia invited in during in the 1990s – but that was to tackle international political issues, not for the sake of a contribution to the economic discussions. However times have changed. A global economic problem needed a presence from developing country leaders.

This being said. In light of aforementioned, last weekend, Presidents and prime ministers from a score of rich and emerging economies descended on Washington, DC, ostensibly to remake the rules of global finance. They came to Washington, as countries hit by the developed world’s financial crisis and, in some cases, as countries that might be able to help fix it.

The G20 (more formally, the Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors), created after the emerging-market crises a decade ago, is not perfect for today’s problems. It excludes a big economy with an admired system of financial regulation (Spain) but includes a mid-sized country that has become irrelevant to global finance because of its own mismanagement (Argentina). Still, the G20 includes most of the key parts of the rich and emerging world, making it a better forum for global economic co-operation than the G7 group of rich countries, which has until now held the stage (Source: The Economist).

A recapitulation and highlights of the G20 meeting can be found here:
- BBC News: G20 summit: In quotes
- BBC News: G20 declaration: Full text

Looming Real Economy Burst

The far-reaching consequences of the global financial crisis are becoming apparent for the real economy.

Today (Thursday 16th), the financial crisis shifted gears owing to fears for a global recession and battering financial markets. Even as governments sought yet more action to pull the world economy from the brink of collapse.

Tokyo stock market’s benchmark Nikkei average fell below the important level of 13,000 for the first time since January 1986 in early trading on Thursday, amid intensifying worries of a global equity meltdown. Shares in London dived through the psychologically important 4,000-level today as panic about the strength of the global economy continued to spread from America to Asia and Europe.

Gains, gains, everywhere

The eight-day losing streak ends Monday after central banks and governments announced measures to bolster the global financial system.

At the close Monday (October 13th), the Dow Jones industrial average soared 936.42 points, or 11.08%, to 9,387.61 — the biggest point gain ever. The S&P 500 index climbed 104.13 points, or 11.58%, to 1,003.35, boosted by shares of investment banking and brokerages and auto manufacturers. The Nasdaq composite index rose 194.74 points, or 11.81%, to 1,844.25.

Furthrmore, equities and currencies in Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East rallied Monday as well. Rebounding from last week’s steep losses after governments around the world laid out measures in response to the global financial crisis, boosting risk appetite and investor sentiment.

A round up of the global turmoil around the world can be found here.

Global Stockmarkets Plummet

Stock markets in Asia and Europe plummeted on Friday October 10th. Japan’s stockmarket ended the week in disarray: the Nikkei 225-share index fell by 24% on the week, twice the weekly fall of the 1987 crash. It is now at five-and-a-half-year lows. Europe followed suit. London’s FTSE 100 slumped by more than 10% within minutes of opening; by mid-morning European stocks were also down, with Germany’s DAX index down by more than 8%. Amid widespread anxiety the oil price also tumbled, to around $81 a barrel, its lowest level in a year.

The falls underline that stockmarkets, traumatised by the near-paralysis in credit markets, the collapse of once-mighty banks and the prospect of global recession, are suffering what has been dubbed a “cascading crash”: a series of blows which, added together, are stomach-churning. Source: BBC, The Economist and BusinessWeek.

“Major global downturn” says IMF

The world economy is entering a major downturn in the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In a hard-hitting report, the IMF warned the global economy was facing its most dangerous crisis for 70 years. World economic growth will slow substantially this year, and only pick up modestly later in 2009, it said.

Inside Wall Street’s 36 Hours of Alarm

“If we don’t do this, we may not have an economy on Monday.”

So said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to The New York Times, in an emergency meeting on Thursday, Sept. 18 — part of a 36-hour period that The Times says included “two of the scariest days ever in financial markets.”

It was during this period when Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. decided to use the “break the glass” rescue plan they had been developing, a plan that became the $700 billion bailout proposal being hotly debated in Congress.

The NY Times article, reported by Andrew Ross Sorkin, Diana B. Henriques, Edmund L. Andrews and Joe Nocera and written by Mr. Nocera, recounts the fear that ran up and down Wall Street on these days. It was the big investors who were the most panicked, Mr. Nocera wrote.