Tag Archive for 'Capital Markets'

UBS’ Confession

UBS UBS AG together with Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are the top three losers of the US subprime mortgage crisis, together they wrote down US$106 billion to date.

During UBS’ annual meeting on Wednesday April 23rd in Basel, shareholders were asking just one question: How did UBS manage to lose $37 billion betting on American mortgage-backed assets, battering its core capital and share price in the process?

The UBS internal investigation report on the write-downs gives three broad explanations for the bank’s woes. The investment-banking arm’s preoccupation with growth, the reliance of the control team on flawed measures of risk, and the culture of the bank. A more detailed explanation on all three causes can be found here. The credit squeeze is graphically explained by the Financial Times here and by the BBC here.

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The Mood in The City

The mood in London financial markets is not good. House prices are going down, and with them the British pound. Investment bankers within UBS are looking around for jobs, and the Royal Bank of Scotland is sweeping ABN Amro’s trading floor clean with incredible lack of style:

ABN’s structured credit traders were apparently told on Thursday that they should report to RBS’ London office in preparation for a move there on Monday. Terminals needed to be checked and such like. And when they got there… they were all fired (full story).

Luckily, the British have a great sense of humour, and I couldn’t stop laughing at this economic assessment of London 2010 from the price of everything blog:

London, April 2010 – Wall Street firms have just announced their latest results for FY 2009;

300 million staff have been “written down”, leaving just two (Sid and Doris Bonkers) to manage the investment banks’ remaining worldwide debt, equity, merger and advisory, securitisation, syndication and prime brokerage businesses.

Marti Peeps, sole analyst at the last remaining research house, Teletext, welcomed the results as “a bold step in the face of ongoing bad debt provisioning,” though conceded that the City’s newly “rightsized” payroll might struggle to take on board the burgeoning supply of new issuance, namely the packet of Walkers Crisps rumoured to be hitting the primary market in late summer 2012.Hopes for a recovery in Wall Street earnings have for several quarters hinged on the prospects for the successful completion of a 40p private placement of a bag of Salt and Vinegar flavour crisps on behalf of the Walkers Crisps Company. Lead underwriters JPCitigroupMerrill, a subsidiary of the US government, and Northern Rock SocGen KFW Nomura, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tesco plc (Neasden branch), are rumoured to have “solid” interest for the underwriting, most notably from Asia, itself a subsidiary of Texas Pacific Group, but declined to go into further detail. (click here for pdf version. Enjoy!)

Update @ April 15th: London’s financial services sector faces a loss of 20,000 jobs over the next two years. Cuts by Citigroup and RBS are the tip of the iceberg (BusinessWeek).

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JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan Chase M&A Bear Stearns

Asian Markets

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI (코스피지수) There’s a paradox in Asian markets, according to Rafael Nam of Reuters. Balance sheets of Asian companies look like they’re in good shape, yet the cost of insuring against debt defaults by these businesses is even higher than it was a decade ago, during the Asian crisis. That makes life harder for them, but it could create an opportunity for investors.

In this case, the only rational explanation seems to be that investors - who are ultimately the ones doing the insuring - simply prefer to keep their money in highly liquid securities denominated in dollars or euros. Yet to the extent that investors’ preferences for the United States and the euro zone come from habit rather than from economic fundamentals - and habit is undoubtedly a part of it - the opportunity in Asia is real. So, who will take advantage?

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This Week’s Market Coaster & Chocolate!

Market coaster!

A symbolic visual for this week’s ups and downs at stock markets across the world.

Kit kat green Tea JapanOn the bright side of all the market tumble news, I just found out that Western chocolatiers experimenting with new flavours aimed at targeting Asian markets in order to fuel growth in a saturated Western chocolate market. You can think of ginseng, red bean and green tea flavours! What’s more to come? As I just finished reading the book “The Long Tail by Chris Anderson” creating more product variety aimed at niche markets has a big future! A glimpse into the beginning of a world with unlimited variety of chocolate can be found here.

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Fasten Your Safety Belt?

Financial TraderToday, the world’s biggest bank delivers dreadful results. Citigroup recorded a net loss of $9.8 billion, driven by a whopping $18.1 billion in pre-tax write-downs and credit costs on exposure to subprime mortgages.

Worse, it is no longer just collateralised-debt obligations and other complex securitised products that are hurting the world’s largest bank (by assets if no longer by market value). Credit cards and other consumer-finance businesses are deteriorating fast as America’s economy flirts with recession.

Capital markets around the world ended the day all in red digits. What more can we expect the upcoming weeks when other leading financials record their 4Q and FY2007 results? How much more write downs can capital markets digest? How can we fix it?

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Best Performing Stockmarkets in Emerging Markets

Stockmarkets in emerging economies
Source

Islamic banking takes off

Islamic Finance and BankingFormerly concentrated in North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, Islamic banking is now spreading rapidly around the world. Attracted by a huge growth potential, international banks like Citigroup, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are creating their own Islamic wings. In addition to Islamic loans, there are Islamic bonds, Islamic credit cards, and even Islamic derivatives. Loans and bonds that conform to the Koran are already available in the United States. Britain, Japan and Thailand are contemplating issuing Islamic bonds of their own.

Today, over 300 Islamic financial institutions are successfully running their businesses from Dubai, New York, Hong Kong, London and other financial centres around the world, and together hold at least $500 billion in assets. This amount is expected to increase with more than 10 percent a year (source).

Islamic banking refers to a system of banking or banking activity that is consistent with Islamic law (Sharia) principles and guided by Islamic economics. In particular, Islamic law prohibits usury, the collection and payment of interest, also commonly called riba in Islamic discourse. In addition, Islamic law prohibits investing in businesses that are considered unlawful, or haraam (such as businesses that sell alcohol or pork, or businesses that produce media such as gossip columns or pornography, which are contrary to Islamic values).

“This is an industry on its way from a niche industry to becoming a truly global industry,”. Khawaja Mohammad Salman Younis, the managing director for operations in Malaysia for Kuwait Finance House, the world’s second-largest Islamic bank, after Al-Rajhi Bank, told The International Herald Tribune. ” In the next three to five years you’ll see Islamic banks coming out in Australia, China, Japan and other parts of the world.”

All-in-all, before Islamic banking activities can really take off there need to be done an adjustment to the current regulatory environment. Research conducted by McKinsey emphasises on two areas of attention: general licensing policies and the role of governments in overseeing compliance with the Islamic code or Sharia. Notwithstanding, an influential propeller for the recent popularity of Islamic banking is the booming oil price (Source). As this is expected not to slow down in the forthcoming years it can only speed up the needed regulatory reforms and trigger further globalisation of Islamic banking.

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Emerging economies

Stockmarkets Performance

The world is experiencing one of the biggest revolutions in history, as economic power shifts from the developed world to emerging giants, like the BRIC countries and others. Thanks to market reforms, emerging economies are growing much faster than developed ones.

The increasing strength of emerging economies has been reflected in their stockmarkets, which have climbed steeply in recent years. According Morgan Stanley Capital International’s emerging-market index, stockmarkets in emerging economies are expected to grow nearly four times compared with an increase of only 70% in the S&P 500.

High p/e ratios indicate there is a bubble in the making. However when looking beyond the p/e ratio and compare a country’s p/e ratio with its own track record it looks lik some countries have a strong “buy”.

Interested in reading up on this issue this can be a good starter “Dizzy in Boomtown” and “Can Emerging Markets Save Europe“.

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Financial Centres: Will Tokyo bounce back?

Tokyo Skyline Financial Centres

Will Tokyo continue to be Asia’s leading financial centre and keep up with the world’s premier financial centres: New York and London?

The other day I was reading a special report on financial centres published by The Economist. Today my juices got rolling again on this topic. While I was reading this article published by the NY Times on how Japan’s economic planners want to revive Tokyo’s stock market.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange has fallen from being the largest stock market in the world at 1990 market capitalization to No. 2, behind the New York Stock Exchange. During that time, the value of all shares traded on the Tokyo exchange rose less than 60 percent, to about $4.6 trillion at the end of last year. By contrast, the value of the New York exchange increased fivefold. Hong Kong’s main exchange rose by a factor of 21, though it is still half the size of Tokyo. In London, already the global centre for trading in currency, the main stock market has grown fourfold since 1990 and could soon overtake Tokyo.

Industry experts agree that Tokyo has to attract much more foreign capital, foreign investors/companies, and foreign talent in order to remain competitive in the region and to keep up with New York and London. A necessity to achieve this is creating a better regulatory and tax environment. On top of that advance living conditions for English speakers, amongst others creating more English schools and putting up English signs etc..

If Japan will achieve this is yet to be seen. Particularly cause of the growing importance of Hong Kong as major hub to spread Chinese capital around the world. A safer bet for Tokyo would be to concentrate on a certain niche.

Stick market Capatalisation Ranking

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