Stock markets around the world staged a recovery in 2009 since March, when most of them hit their lows for the year. It was a year in which governments and central banks around the world took extraordinary measures to get their economies growing.
US share prices also performed well. Despite a drop of about 1% of all Wall Street indexes during the last trading hour on New Year’s Eve, the broad-based S&P 500 index was up nearly 25%, the strongest performance since 2003, while the Dow Jones gained 20%. The technology-driven Nasdaq index doubled those gains, rallying 45%. [Source 1] [Source 2]
Former Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain offers his opinions as to what caused the crisis, what can be done to prevent it from happening again, and when it will be over — not just for the financial industry but also for Main Street. This lecture consist out of three videos, which include Thain’s remarks to the audience, questions from the three-member panel and, finally, questions from the audience.
A brash new generation of traders is making a fortune by remaking financial markets. An outgrowth of Chicago’s derivatives markets, they go by wonky names like Global Electronic Trading Co., Tradebot and Infinium. Personnel include mathematicians, engineers and gamers. They bet their own capital on sophisticated software algorithms that spit out thousands of orders a second. Big Wall Street brokerages and hedge funds pursue similar strategies.
E.g. from the get-go the strategy was to trade fast, furiously and electronically. Getco’s first point of attack was futures, which went electronic early. Tierney and Schuler programmed their computers, and the people manning them, to offer quotes and execute trades more quickly than rivals. Then, when the market moves, to do it again. By posting bids and offers for the same securities simultaneously, they are able to scoop up a spread of a tenth or a hundredth of a penny per share thousands of times a day while limiting the capital at risk. What Getco gives up by capping its risk it makes up for in volume. The company currently trades an estimated 1.5 billion shares a day with 220 employees and offices in Chicago, New York, London and Singapore.
From the ruins of the credit crunch, a new financial order will emerge. Its shape is not yet known, but is already hotly debated. Will there be a new model for investment banking? The socialisation of risk? A return to Keynesianism? What role will hedge funds and private equity play? And government and regulators?
In this series of exclusive video interviews, Lionel Barber, editor of the Financial Times, talks to some of the chief protagonists – bankers, policymakers, financiers – and asks them to explain not just what happened, but also how they think finance will adapt to the post-crash world.
People often talk about financial markets as if they were casinos, but reflexivity makes them much more dangerous than any gambling den. The numbers on a roulette wheel never change, but markets offer no guarantee that yesterday’s odds will be the same tomorrow.
Wanna see how the recession has affected GDP, house prices, rates and inflation. BBC published an analysis on stock markets and government rescues here (Global Downturn). In light of this the Financial Times has published a special report on how to fight a global downturn here (Managing in a Downturn).
Global share markets have fallen back amid investors’ widening fears of a sustained worldwide economic recession.
It is startling how quickly and savagely the global credit crunch is morphing into a full-blown economic crisis.
The latest gloomy news on the economy took the euro below $1,26. Six months ago, a euro would buy as much as $1,60. Such has been the severity of the recent shifts in currency markets that the euro is one of the better performing global currencies. It is down by 14% against the dollar this year; the pound by 22%. A good chunk of that fall took place in the past week.
A handful of rich-country currencies have fared worse. The Norwegian krone and Canadian, New Zealand and Australian dollars have fallen by still more, partly a reflection of the worsening prospects for economies that are sensitive to falling oil and commodity prices (Source).
Not every currency can go down. As investors pull funds from one country they need to find a new home for their money. The favoured destination for now-skittish capital is Japan. The yen which has risen, according to intra-day trading, by a fifth against the dollar since the start of the year, is proving attractive because of Japan’s status as the world’s biggest creditor nation.
When credit is drying up, investors steer clear of countries with current-account deficits, since their economies rely on overseas borrowing to sustain them. But Japan habitually runs trade surpluses and, as a consequence, has built up a big stock of foreign assets (Source).
People often talk about financial markets as if they were casinos, but reflexivity makes them much more dangerous than any gambling den. The numbers on a roulette wheel never change, but markets offer no guarantee that yesterday’s odds will be the same tomorrow.
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